Data Collected: Analyzed AI Overview presence patterns year-over-year to understand:

• Overall AI Overview expansion by industry
• Intent-based presence patterns in eCommerce
• Search volume correlation with AI Overview appearance
• Category-level shifts in AI treatment
• Google's strategic decisions on research vs. purchase queries

Key Finding: Google expanded AI Overview presence from 34% to 46% overall (+12pp), but eCommerce sits at just 16% while all other industries average 58%. Within shopping queries, intent determines everything: "best [product]" queries exploded from 5% to 83% AI presence, while transactional and pure product queries remained flat at 13-14%. Google learned that AI helps shoppers research but gets in the way when they're ready to buy.

The Year-Over-Year Shift

The Headline Numbers

November 2024: 34% of all keywords had AI Overviews

November 2025: 46% of all keywords have AI Overviews

But that +12pp growth is not evenly distributed. Google got highly selective.

The Industry Divide

eCommerce: 16% AI Overview presence

All Other Industries: 58% AI Overview presence

Google expanded AI aggressively everywhere — except shopping. That's not an accident.

Where Google Expanded AI Overviews YoY

The Biggest Gainers

The categories and query types that saw dramatic AI Overview expansion:

• "Best [product]" queries: 5% → 83% (+78pp)
• Grocery/Food: 5% → 49% (+44pp)
• Entertainment: 4% → 47% (+43pp)
• Travel: 32% → 57% (+25pp)
• Electronics: 9% → 24% (+15pp)
• TV & Home Theater: 13% → 25% (+12pp)
• Small Kitchen Appliances: 13% → 24% (+10pp)

Google leaned heavily into research and consideration content.

Where Google Held Back

Meanwhile, transactional shopping categories barely moved:

• Apparel: 8% → 11% (+2pp)
• Home: 10% → 9% (-1pp)
• Furniture: 2% → 2% (flat)
• Pure product queries: Still under 15%

High-volume purchase terms like "65 inch tv" or "mens sneakers" remain AI Overview-free zones.

The Intent Line Google Drew

Query Intent Determines AI Presence

Forget categories. The real pattern within eCommerce is intent:

• Informational Queries ("best air fryer"): 83% have AI Overviews
• Transactional Queries ("buy air fryer"): 13% have AI Overviews
• Pure Product Names ("air fryer"): 14% have AI Overviews

The "Best" Query Explosion

The single biggest YoY shift in our entire dataset:

• 2024: 5% of "best [product]" queries had AI Overviews
• 2025: 83% of "best [product]" queries have AI Overviews

That's a +78pp swing in one year. If you're ranking for "best" content, the SERP you optimized for last holiday season no longer exists.

What This Tells Us

Google spent 2024 figuring out where AI helps versus where it gets in the way. Their conclusion:

• Research Phase: AI Overviews add value
• Purchase Phase: Traditional results close the sale

The data proves it. Informational queries saw massive AI expansion. Transactional queries stayed deliberately protected.

What the Volume Data Reveals

The Unexpected Pattern

Across all industries, we found an inverse relationship between search volume and AI Overview presence:

• Under 1K volume: 45% → 60% (+15pp)
• 1K - 5K volume: 46% → 61% (+15pp)
• 5K - 10K volume: 34% → 46% (+12pp)
• 10K - 50K volume: 26% → 36% (+11pp)
• 50K - 100K volume: 21% → 32% (+12pp)
• 100K+ volume: 20% → 28% (+8pp)

Lower volume keywords consistently have higher AI Overview rates.

But eCommerce Is Different

In eCommerce specifically, AI Overview presence is flat across all volume tiers: 14-19% regardless of search volume.

Translation: Google isn't using search volume to decide which shopping queries get AI treatment. They're using intent signals. A 500K volume product query stays protected while a 5K "best" query gets an AI Overview.

Category Deep Dive: eCommerce

AI Overview Presence by Category (2025)

• Grocery: 5% → 49% (+44pp)
• Electronics: 9% → 24% (+15pp)
• TV & Home Theater: 13% → 25% (+12pp)
• Small Kitchen Appliances: 13% → 24% (+10pp)
• Apparel: 8% → 11% (+2pp)
• Home: 10% → 9% (-1pp)
• Furniture: 2% → 2% (flat)

Why Grocery Stands Out

Grocery saw the largest expansion because food queries blend informational intent with shopping. Queries like "cottage cheese," "prosciutto," or "vegetables" have educational components (nutrition, recipes, preparation) that AI Overviews can address — unlike pure product queries.

Why Furniture Stayed Flat

At just 2% AI Overview presence in both years, furniture represents a category Google has deliberately kept AI-free. High-consideration, high-price purchases appear to warrant traditional search results where users can compare retailers, prices, and options directly.

Holiday Shopping Categories: The Black Friday View

Traditional Black Friday/Cyber Monday Categories

• Computers/Laptops: 6% → 21% (+15pp)
• Small Kitchen Appliances: 13% → 24% (+10pp)
• TVs: 9% → 18% (+9pp)
• Streaming Devices: 35% → 42% (+8pp)
• Apparel: 8% → 11% (+2pp)
• Furniture: 2% → 2% (flat)

The Mattress Reversal

One notable outlier: Mattresses dropped from 44% to 17% AI Overview presence (-27pp). Google appears to have pulled back AIOs for this high-consideration category — possibly recognizing that mattress shoppers need to compare retailers and deals rather than get AI-summarized answers.

The Strategic Implications

Two Metrics for 2025

Last year, your "best [product]" pages competed for Position 1. This year, they compete for AI citations while Position 1 sits below the fold.

This means tracking two different metrics:

• For Research Queries: Are you being CITED in AI Overviews?
• For Purchase Queries: Are you RANKING in organic results?

Same content calendar. Different success metrics depending on intent.

The Dual-Channel Reality

This isn't about AI OR organic anymore. It's both:

• Your "best [product]" content needs to be citation-worthy for AI
• Your product pages need traditional SEO excellence
• Same brand, two battlefronts

What Google Learned (And What You Should Too)

Google tested aggressively in 2024. They kept what worked, pulled back what didn't.

Their conclusion: Let AI guide consideration. Let results close conversion.

The brands who adapt aren't choosing between AI optimization and traditional SEO — they're matching their strategy to Google's intent-based approach.

Strategic Implementation Framework

For Research Content ("Best [Product]" Queries)

Your Reality: 83% of these queries now show AI Overviews

Your Goal: Get cited, not just ranked

Action Items:

• Create comprehensive comparison content that AI can summarize
• Include clear, factual statements that work as citation sources
• Structure content with distinct sections AI can reference
• Update existing "best" content for citation-worthiness

For Product Pages (Transactional Queries)

Your Reality: Only 13-14% show AI Overviews

Your Goal: Win the traditional ranking game

Action Items:

• Traditional on-page SEO still dominates
• Focus on shopping feed optimization
• Product schema markup matters
• Page speed and Core Web Vitals remain critical

For Category Pages

Your Reality: Intent varies by category

Action Items:

• Grocery/Food: Prepare for high AI presence, optimize for citations
• Apparel/Furniture: Traditional SEO focus, minimal AI disruption
• Electronics: Mixed approach — research content needs citation optimization, product pages need ranking focus

Action Items for Holiday 2025

Immediate Actions

1. Audit Your "Best" Content: The SERP changed dramatically. Review your top research-phase content for citation-worthiness.
2. Segment by Intent: Map your pages to informational vs. transactional buckets. Apply different success metrics to each.
3. Check Your Exposure: What percentage of your traffic comes from "best" queries? That's your AI Overview exposure rate.

Content Priorities

High Priority (AI Citation Focus):

• "Best [product]" guides
• Comparison content
• Buyer's guides
• "How to choose" content

Standard Priority (Traditional SEO):

• Product pages
• Category pages
• Brand pages
• Transactional landing pages

Measurement Framework

For Research Queries, Track:

• AI Overview citation presence
• Citation position within AI Overview
• Brand mention frequency

For Purchase Queries, Track:

• Organic rank position
• Click-through rate
• Shopping carousel presence

Technical Methodology

Data Source: BrightEdge AI Catalyst

Analysis Approach:

• Same keyword set pulled at identical time points (Black Friday week 2024 vs. 2025)
• AI Overview presence tracked as binary (yes/no) per keyword
• Intent classification based on query patterns and modifiers
• Volume segmentation using monthly search volume data
• Category taxonomy applied consistently across both years

Measurement Periods: November 2024, November 2025

Key Takeaways

• The 12pp Growth: Overall AI Overview presence grew from 34% to 46%, but distribution is highly uneven
• The 16% vs 58% Divide: eCommerce has dramatically lower AI presence than all other industries
• The 78pp Explosion: "Best [product]" queries saw the largest single shift in AI Overview presence
• The Intent Line: Google drew a clear boundary — AI for research, traditional results for purchase
• The Volume Insight: Search volume doesn't determine AI presence in eCommerce; intent does

The Strategic Reality: Brands need to track citations AND rankings — different metrics for different query types

Data Collected: Analyzed brand mention patterns across three AI search engines to understand:

• Brand density variations by query intent

• Platform-specific recommendation strategies

• Journey stage impact on competitive landscapes

• Citation patterns across informational, consideration, and transactional queries

• Category-level variance in brand mentions

Key Finding: All three AI engines adapt brand recommendations based on query intent, with consideration queries showing 26% more brand competition than transactional queries. Google AI Mode peaks at 8.3 brands for consideration, while Google AIO mentions only 1.4 brands for informational queries despite appearing 30.3% of the time.

The Intent Framework

Query Classification

• Informational: Educational queries where users learn about products ("What is OLED?")

• Consideration: Research queries where users evaluate options ("best coffee maker")

• Transactional: Purchase-ready queries with commercial intent ("Samsung TV Walmart")

Brand Mention Patterns by Intent

The Universal Pattern

Google AI Mode - Comprehensive Throughout

• Informational: 6.6 brands per query

• Consideration: 8.3 brands per query

• Transactional: 6.6 brands per query

ChatGPT - Journey-Adaptive

• Informational: 5.1 brands per query

• Consideration: 6.5 brands per query

• Transactional: 4.7 brands per query

Google AI Overviews - Selective Presence

• Informational: 1.4 brands per query

• Consideration: 3.9 brands per query

• Transactional: 3.9 brands per query

• Overall presence: 18.4% of queries

The Competition Landscape

Highest Competition: Consideration Stage

The 8.3 Brand Reality

• AI Mode averages 8.3 brands for consideration queries

• ChatGPT follows with 6.5 brands

• Even Google AIO jumps to 3.9 brands

• 26% more competition than transactional stage

Hidden Opportunity: Informational on Google AIO

The 1.4 Brand Advantage

• Google AIO appears for 30.3% of informational queries

• Mentions only 1.4 brands on average

• Lowest competition across all engines and intents

• Prime opportunity for educational content

The Transactional Divide

Platform-Specific Strategies

• ChatGPT drops to 4.7 brands (28% reduction from consideration)

• Google AIO appears only 14.3% of the time

• Google relies on shopping carousels for purchase intent

• AI Mode maintains 6.6 brands consistently

Citation Patterns Tell Another Story

Authority Signals by Engine

• Google AIO: 9-12 citations per query (highest)

• AI Mode: 5-8 citations per query

• ChatGPT: 4-6 citations per query

Google values source authority more heavily, particularly for informational content.

Google's Strategic Division of Labor

Where AI Overviews Appear

• Informational: 30.3% presence (highest)

• Transactional: 14.3% presence

• Consideration: 13.8% presence

Why the Pattern Makes Sense

Google uses AI Overviews to enhance education and research, while relying on established commerce features (shopping carousels, product grids, merchant listings) for transactional queries. This explains both the low presence and low brand counts for purchase-intent searches.

Category-Level Insights

High Variance Categories

Categories like Furniture show massive swings:

• AI Mode: 11.5 brands

• ChatGPT: 5.8 brands

• AI Overviews: 0.1 brands

Consistent Categories

Small Kitchen Appliances remain steady:

• AI Mode: 6.5 brands

• ChatGPT: 5.7 brands

• AI Overviews: 5.2 brands (when present)

Strategic Implementation Framework

For Consideration Content

Your Biggest Battleground

• Create comprehensive comparison guides

• Build detailed feature tables

• Develop use-case scenarios

• Expect to compete with 8+ brands

For Informational Content

Your Best Opportunity

• Target "how does X work" queries

• Create "what is" educational guides

• Build "difference between" content

• Capitalize on low competition in Google AIO

For Transactional Content

The Reality Check

• Google AIO rarely appears (14.3%)

• Traditional SEO still dominates

• Focus on shopping feed optimization

• Product pages matter more than AI optimization

Platform-Specific Strategies

Google AI Mode Strategy

• Consistently high brand mentions require differentiation

• Focus on comprehensive content that stands out

• 36% of queries show 10+ brands

ChatGPT Strategy

• Biggest journey adaptation (28% drop at transaction)

• Optimize for middle-funnel content

• Balance between information and recommendation

Google AIO Strategy

• Appears selectively but cites heavily

• Win with authoritative educational content

• Remember: complements shopping results, doesn't replace them

Action Items for Implementation

Immediate Actions

1. Audit by Intent: Map your content to informational, consideration, and transactional buckets

2. Gap Analysis: Where are you missing content for each intent stage?

3. Competitive Assessment: Count how many competitors appear for your key queries

Content Priorities

1. Consideration Content: Comparison guides, "best of" lists, evaluation criteria

2. Informational Content: How-to guides, educational resources, feature explanations

3. Transactional Optimization: Traditional SEO, shopping feeds, product pages

Technical Methodology

Data Source: BrightEdge AI Catalyst

• Tens of thousands shopping-related queries analyzed

• Brand mention counts per query

• Citation analysis per result

• Intent classification based on query patterns

Measurement Period: November 2024

Key Takeaways

• The 26% Rule: Consideration queries see 26% more brand competition than transactional

• The 8.3 Peak: AI Mode's consideration queries represent maximum brand density

• The 1.4 Opportunity: Google AIO's informational queries offer minimal competition

• The 18.4% Reality: Most queries still rely on traditional search results

• The Journey Principle: All engines adapt to user intent, just differently