Data Collected: Monitored AI Overview citation overlap with organic rankings across 9 industries from May 2024-September 2025 using BrightEdge Generative Parser™ to analyze:
- Citation source patterns
- Overlap progression over time
- Industry-specific convergence rates
- Algorithm evolution phases
Key Finding: AI Overview citations increasingly come from pages that rank organically—overlap grew from 32.3% to 54.5% (+22.3 pp), but individual industries vary wildly from E-commerce's flat 0.6 pp change to Education's massive 53.2 pp surge.
The Big Numbers
- 54.5% of AI Overview citations now rank organically (up from 32.3%)
- 69% relative increase in overlap over 16 months
- 53.2 pp increase for Education (largest industry shift)
- 0.6 pp increase for E-commerce (only flat industry)
- 75%+ overlap for Healthcare and Education (highest convergence)
The Convergence Timeline
May 2024: Launch Baseline
- Overall overlap: 32.3%
- Healthcare leads at 63.3%
- Travel/Entertainment/Restaurants near 0%
- Most citations from non-ranking sources
September 2024: Public Rollout Catalyst
- Overlap jumps to 39.1%
- Acceleration begins (+5.4 pp in 2 months)
- Education and Insurance surge
- Clear shift toward ranked content
January 2025: New Year Acceleration
- Overlap reaches 45.2%
- Fastest growth period (~3 pp/month)
- Most industries showing convergence
- E-commerce remains flat
September 2025: Current State
- Overlap stabilizes at 54.5%
- Healthcare at 75.3%
- Education at 72.6%
- E-commerce still at 22.9%
- Pattern appears to be stabilizing
Industry Breakdown
High Convergence (68-75% overlap)
- Healthcare: 75.3% (started high, modest gains)
- Education: 72.6% (explosive +53.2 pp growth)
- B2B Tech: 71.0% (strong +32.4 pp growth)
- Insurance: 68.6% (major +47.7 pp surge)
Low Convergence (<33% overlap)
- Finance: 32.2% (steady but below average)
- Entertainment: 25.9% (late starter, catching up)
- Travel: 23.6% (started near zero)
- E-commerce: 22.9% (anomaly - virtually no change)
- Restaurants: 19.2% (started at zero)
The Three Phases
Phase 1: Testing (May-Aug 2024)
- Flat at ~32-34% overlap
- Google experimenting with sources
- Some industries had AIOs disabled
- No clear pattern emerging
Phase 2: Acceleration (Sep 2024-Jan 2025)
- 34.6% → 45.2% (+10.6 pp in 4 months)
- September public rollout triggers shift
- Fastest growth: ~3 pp per month
- Clear move toward ranked content
Phase 3: Convergence (Feb-Sep 2025)
- 45.2% → 54.5% (+9.3 pp)
- Crossed 50% threshold in May 2025
- Growth slowing, pattern stabilizing
Takeaways from Data
- The Convergence is Real but Uneven While overall overlap grew 22.3 pp, individual industries range from 0.6 pp (E-commerce) to 53.2 pp (Education). Your strategy depends entirely on your vertical.
- YMYL Content Drives Convergence Healthcare, Insurance, and Education show 68-75% overlap—when trust matters, Google strongly prefers content that already ranks well organically.
- E-commerce is the Exception The only industry where overlap stayed flat (0.6 pp) and AIO coverage actually decreased (-7.6 pp). Google appears to intentionally keep transactional queries separate from AI Overviews.
- Position 21-100 is the Sweet Spot Most overlap growth comes from pages ranking 21-100, not top 10. Only 16.7% of citations come from top 10 results, suggesting Google seeks diversity within ranked content.
- September 2024 Changed Everything The public rollout marked a clear inflection point—overlap jumped 5.4 pp in two months. This is when Google committed to favoring ranked content for AI Overviews.
Download the Full Report
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Published on September 18, 2025